Recent Working Papers and Publications

“A Distant Mirror of Debt, Default, and Relief,” (with Christoph Trebesch) NBER Working Paper 20577, October 2014. Also downloadable here.
Summary:  "Sovereign-debt relief and its aftermath: The 1930s, the 1990s, the future," VOX EU,October 21, 2014.

“Dealing with Debt,” (with Vincent Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff), paper prepared for the International Seminar in Macroeconomics, July 2014, forthcoming in the Journal of International Economics.

2014 Carlos Diaz Alejandro Prize  Powerpoint to Lecture, "Why Reading Diaz Alejandro is Essential for Understanding Financial Crises" , LACEA, Sao Paulo, November 2014. Forthcoming in Economia, Spring 2015.

“The Liquidation of Government Debt,” (with M. Belen Sbrancia), NBER Working Paper 16893, March 2011. Forthcoming in Economic Policy, 2015.

 This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,” (with Kenneth Rogoff), Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November 2014.

“Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms” (with Nicolas E. Magud, and Esteban R. Vesperoni). Review of Development Economics, Vol. 18(3), August 2014, 415-430.

“Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) American Economic Review, Vol. 104(5), May 2014, 50-55.
Online Appendix and Figures, Tables, and Data

“Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), in Stijn Cleassens, Ayhan Kose, and Luc Laeven (eds.) Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, 2014).
Reprinted in Chinese in: Journal of Financial Market Research, Vol. 24(5), 2014, 127-139

Addicted to Dollars,(with Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano) Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, Vol. 15(1), May 2014, pages 1-52.

“Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation” (with Takeshi Tashiro). Forthcoming in Reuven Glick and Mark Spiegel, (eds.), Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy, (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2014). Also San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank’s  Proceedings, November 2013, 1-43.

Asia Chartbook: Crises, Credit and Debt, 1835-2013, NBER Working Paper 19645, November 2013.

“Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), Journal of Banking & Finance Vol. 37, November 2013, 4557–4573.

Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve’s First Centennial,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). American Economic Review, Vol. 103(3), May 2013, 48-54.

This Time is Different, Again? The United States Five Years After the Onset of Subprime (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), Harvard University,October 14, 2012.  See also Apples and Oranges: Ordinary Recessions and Recessions with Financial Crises, October 16, 2012.

“Capital Controls: Myth and Reality, A Portfolio Approach” (with Nicolas Magud and Kenneth S. Rogoff), NBER Working Paper 16805, February 2011. (Under revision).