Recent Working Papers and Publications

“Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold? (with Ethan Ilzetzki and Kenneth S. Rogoff).  National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 23134, February 2017.

“Does Reserve Accumulation Crowd Out Investment?” (with Vincent Reinhart and Takeshi Tashiro). Journal of International Money and Finance. Vol. 63, May 2016, 89-111.

"Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015,” (with Vincent Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch).  American Economic Review, Vol. 106(5), May 2016, 574-580. All Figures, Tables, and Data

The International Monetary Fund:  Seventy Years of Reinventing Itself” (with Christoph Trebesch). Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 30(1) Winter 2016, 3-28. All Figures, Tables, and Data

 “Sovereign Debt Relief and its Aftermath,” (with Christoph Trebesch). Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 14(1), February 2016, 215-251."Sovereign-debt relief and its aftermath: The 1930s, the 1990s, the future," VOX EU,October 21, 2014.

Sovereign Debt and Financial Crises: Theory and Historical Evidence,” (with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Kenneth Rogoff) Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 14(1), February 2016, 1-6.

"From Financial Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela." (with Miguel Angel Santos). Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 52(2), February 2016, 255-284.

 “The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece, 1829-2015,” (with Christoph Trebesch). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2015, 307-328. All Figures, Tables, and Data

“The Antecedents and Aftermath of Financial Crises as told by Carlos F. Díaz Alejandro. Economía Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, Fall 2015. Vol. 16(1), 187-217.

"Financial Crises, Development, and Growth: A Long-term Perspective"  (with Vincent R. Reinhart), World Bank Economic Review, April 2015, Vol. 29 (1), 1-24.

“Dealing with Debt,” (with Vincent Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 86(1), April 2015, 543-555.

“The Liquidation of Government Debt,” (with M. Belen Sbrancia), NBER Working Paper 16893, March 2011.  Economic Policy, Vol. 30(82), March 2015, 291-333. Most recent version here.  All Figures, Tables, and Data

“Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy: An Overview,” (with Miguel Fuentes and Claudio Raddatz), Journal Economía Chilena, Banco Central de Chile, Vol. 18(1), April 2015, 50-67.

 This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,” (with Kenneth Rogoff), Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November 2014.

“Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms” (with Nicolas E. Magud, and Esteban R. Vesperoni). Review of Development Economics, Vol. 18(3), August 2014, 415-430.

“Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) American Economic Review, Vol. 104(5), May 2014, 50-55.
Online Appendix and Figures, Tables, and Data

“Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), in Stijn Cleassens, Ayhan Kose, and Luc Laeven (eds.) Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, 2014).
Reprinted in Chinese in: Journal of Financial Market Research, Vol. 24(5), 2014, 127-139

Addicted to Dollars,(with Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano) Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, Vol. 15(1), May 2014, pages 1-52.

“Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation” (with Takeshi Tashiro). Forthcoming in Reuven Glick and Mark Spiegel, (eds.), Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy, (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2014). Also San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank’s  Proceedings, November 2013, 1-43.

Asia Chartbook: Crises, Credit and Debt, 1835-2013, NBER Working Paper 19645, November 2013.

“Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), Journal of Banking & Finance Vol. 37, November 2013, 4557–4573.

Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve’s First Centennial,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). American Economic Review, Vol. 103(3), May 2013, 48-54.

This Time is Different, Again? The United States Five Years After the Onset of Subprime (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), Harvard University,October 14, 2012.  See also Apples and Oranges: Ordinary Recessions and Recessions with Financial Crises, October 16, 2012.

“Capital Controls: Myth and Reality, A Portfolio Approach” (with Nicolas Magud and Kenneth S. Rogoff), NBER Working Paper 16805, February 2011. (Under revision).