Financial, Currency and Debt Crises

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015,” (with Vincent Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch).  American Economic Review, Vol. 106(5), May 2016, 574-580.

The International Monetary Fund:  Seventy Years of Reinventing Itself” (with Christoph Trebesch). Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 30(1) Winter 2016, 3-28.

 “Sovereign Debt Relief and its Aftermath,” (with Christoph Trebesch). Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 14(1), February 2016, 215-251."Sovereign-debt relief and its aftermath: The 1930s, the 1990s, the future," VOX EU,October 21, 2014.


Sovereign Debt and Financial Crises: Theory and Historical Evidence,” (with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Kenneth Rogoff) Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 14(1), February 2016, 1-6.

"From Financial Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela." (with Miguel Angel Santos). Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 52(2), February 2016, 255-284.


 “The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece, 1829-2015,” (with Christoph Trebesch). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2015, 307-328.

“The Antecedents and Aftermath of Financial Crises as told by Carlos F. Díaz Alejandro. Economía Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, Fall 2015. Vol. 16(1), 187-217.

"Financial Crises, Development, and Growth: A Long-term Perspective"
(with Vincent R. Reinhart), World Bank Economic Review, April 2015, Vol. 29 (1), 1-24.

This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,” (with Kenneth Rogoff), Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November 2014. NBERWP13882.
All, Tables, Figures and Data

“Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) American Economic Review, Vol. 104(5), May 2014, 50-55.
Online Appendix and 
All Figures, Tables, and Data

“Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), in Stijn Cleassens, Ayhan Kose, and Luc Laeven (eds.) Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, 2014).
Chinese version in: Journal of Financial Market Research, Vol. 24(5), 2014, 127-139.

“Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), Journal of Banking & Finance Vol. 37, November 2013, 4557–4573. Also downloadable NBERWP 14587.
All Figures, Tables, and Data

"This Time is Different, Again? The United States Five Years after the Onset of Subprime,"(with Kenneth S. Rogoff),  MPRA 51257, October 2012See also Apples and Oranges: Ordinary Recessions and Recessions with Financial Crises, October 16, 2012.

“The Causes of Financial Crises, Past and Present: The Role of the This-Time-is-Different Syndrome,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) in Janet Byrne, (ed.) The Occupy Handbook, (New York: Little, Brown and Co., 2012), 117-132.

 “A Series of Unfortunate Events: Common Sequencing Patterns in Financial Crises,” Rivista di Politica Economica, Vol. 4, 2011, 11-36.

“From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff).  American Economic Review, Vol. 101(5), August, 2011, 1676-1706. Downloadable  NBERWP15795.
Online Figures, Tables, and Data

“The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), Economic Journal, Vol. 121, Issue 552, May 2011,319-350. Dowloadable NBERWP 13946.
All, Tables, Figures and Data

 “Graduation from Debt, Inflation, and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?” (with Rong Qian and Kenneth S. Rogoff) in Daron Acemoglu and Michael Woodford, (eds.) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, Vol. 25, Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 2010, 1-36.

This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises, NBERWP15815, March 2010 in Decade of Debt (Washington: Peterson Institute for Interational Economics, 2011).

“When the North Last Headed South: Revisiting the 1930s” (with Vincent R. Reinhart), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2009, 251-272.

The Aftermath of Financial Crises (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), American Economic Review, Vol. 99 No. 2, May 2009, 466-472. Dowloadable NBERWP14656.
All Figures and Data
Spanish version: Secuelas de crisis bancarias, Bourning Markets, Spain, January 30, 2009.

Is the 2007 U.S. Subprime Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) in American Economic Review, Vol. 98 No. 2, May 2008.
Dowloadable. NBERWP13761.

All Figures and Data
Spanish version:
¿Es tan diferente la crisis financiera sub-prime de 2007 en EEUU? una comparación histórica internacional, MPRA Working Paper 13656, 2008.
Serbian version: Da li je američka sub-prime finansijska kriza iz 2007. godine tako različita? Medunarodna istorijska komparacija, πανoeconomicscus, 2009. 3, 291-299.

Serial Default and Its Remedies (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) in Miguel Centeno, Harold James, and J. Londregan, eds. The Political Economy of Recurrent Debt. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies Monograph Series, Number 3, 2005). 4-18.

Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 2, May 2004, 53-59.

Debt Intolerance (with Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1 Spring 2003, 1-74.
Spanish version:
La Intolerancia a la Deuda con Prólogo (Estímulo fiscal para países con intolerancia a la deuda?) El Trimestre Económico, Mexico, Vol. LXXVI (4), Issue 304, (octubre-diciembre, 2009), 811-884.

“Financial Crises, Credit Ratings, and Bank Failures: An Introduction,” World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 16(2), 2002, 149-151.


Credit Ratings, Default, and Financial Crises, World Bank Economic Review 2002, Vol. 16 No. 2, 2002, 151-170.

“Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System:  Summary and Policy Implications,” (with Richard Levich and Giovanni Majnoni) in Richard Levich, Giovanni Majnoni, and Carmen M. Reinhart (eds.) Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System, (New York: Kluwer Academic Press, 2002), 1-16.

Sovereign Credit Ratings Before and After Financial Crises , in Richard Levich, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Giovanni Majnoni, (eds.) Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System (New York: Kluwer Academic Press 2002), 251-268.

The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), American Economic Review, Vol.89 No.4, June 1999, 473-500.
This version includes crises chronologies:
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Spanish version:
Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos en: Sistemas financieros ante la globalización. Manuel Guitián y Felix Varela, Coordinadores, (Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide, 2000), 63-112.
For a Zip file containing twenty Excel spreadsheets (one per country) of the data used in this study click on data base.

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises (with Graciela L. Kaminsky and J. Saul Lizondo), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45 No.1, March 1998, 1-48.

Financial Crises in Latin America: Then and Now (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), American Economic Review, Vol. 88, May 1998, 444-449.
Spanish version:
Crisis financiera en Asia y Latinoamérica: ahora y entonces en: Sistemas financieros ante la globalización. Manuel Guitián y Felix Varela, Coordinadores, (Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide, 2000), 113-121.