Academic Publications

 

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015,” (with Vincent Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch).  American Economic Review, Vol. 106(5), May 2016, 574-580.

“Does Reserve Accumulation Crowd Out Investment?” (with Vincent Reinhart and Takeshi Tashiro). Journal of International Money and Finance. Vol. 63, May 2016, 89-111.

The International Monetary Fund:  Seventy Years of Reinventing Itself” (with Christoph Trebesch). Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 30(1) Winter 2016, 3-28.

 “Sovereign Debt Relief and its Aftermath,” (with Christoph Trebesch). Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 14(1), February 2016, 215-251."Sovereign-debt relief and its aftermath: The 1930s, the 1990s, the future," VOX EU,October 21, 2014.

 

Sovereign Debt and Financial Crises: Theory and Historical Evidence,” (with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Kenneth Rogoff) Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 14(1), February 2016, 1-6.

"From Financial Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela." (with Miguel Angel Santos). Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 52(2), February 2016, 255-284.

 

 “The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece, 1829-2015,” (with Christoph Trebesch). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2015, 307-328.

“The Antecedents and Aftermath of Financial Crises as told by Carlos F. Díaz Alejandro. Economía Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, Fall 2015. Vol. 16(1), 187-217.

"Financial Crises, Development, and Growth: A Long-term Perspective"  (with Vincent R. Reinhart), World Bank Economic Review, April 2015, Vol. 29 (1), 1-24.

“Dealing with Debt,” (with Vincent Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 86(1), April 2015, 543-555.

“The Liquidation of Government Debt,” (with M. Belen Sbrancia), NBER Working Paper 16893, March 2011.  Economic Policy, Vol. 30(82), March 2015, 291-333. Most recent version here.

“Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy: An Overview,” (with Miguel Fuentes and Claudio Raddatz), Journal Economía Chilena, Banco Central de Chile, Vol. 18(1), April 2015, 50-67.

This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,” (with Kenneth Rogoff), Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November 2014.

“Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms” (with Nicolas E. Magud, and Esteban R. Vesperoni). Review of Development Economics, Vol. 18(3), August 2014, 415-430.

“Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) American Economic Review, Vol. 104(5), May 2014, 50-55.
Online Appendix and Figures, Tables, and Data

“Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation” (with Takeshi Tashiro). Forthcoming in Reuven Glick and Mark Spiegel, (eds.), Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy, (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2014). Also San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank’s  Proceedings, November 2013, 1-43.

“Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), in Stijn Cleassens, Ayhan Kose, and Luc Laeven (eds.) Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, 2014).
Reprinted in Chinese in: Journal of Financial Market Research, Vol. 24(5), 2014, 127-139

Addicted to Dollars,(with Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano) Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, Vol. 15(1), May 2014, pages 1-52 (lead article).

“Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), Journal of Banking & Finance Vol. 37, November 2013, 4557–4573.

Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve’s First Centennial,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). American Economic Review, Vol. 103(3), May 2013, 48-54.
Online Figures, Tables, and Data

Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800” (with Vincent R. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff) Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 26(3), Summer 2012, 69-86.
Online Appendix and Data

“The Causes of Financial Crises, Past and Present: The Role of the This-Time-is-Different Syndrome, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) in Janet Byrne, (ed.) The Occupy Handbook, (New York: Little, Brown and Co., 2012), 117-132.

A Series of Unfortunate Events: Common Sequencing Patterns in Financial Crises in Rivista di Politica Economica, Vol No.  XII Angelo Costa Lecture, October 2011.

From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), NBER Working Paper 15795, March 2010.  American Economic Review, Vol. 101, No. 5, August, 2011, 1676-1706.
Online Appendix and  All Figures, Tables, and Data 

“Limits of Monetary Policy in Theory and Practice,” (with Vincent Reinhart). Cato Journal, Vol. 31, No. 3, Fall 2011, 427-439.

The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). Economic Journal, Vol. 121, Issue 552, May 2011, 319-350.
All Figures and Data

On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion? (with Rong Qian and Kenneth S. Rogoff), NBER Working Paper 16168, forthcoming in Daron Acemoglu and Michael Woodford, eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010. Vol. 25, Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 2010 (lead article)

After the Fall, (with Vincent R. Reinhart), forthcoming in Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium, Macroeconomic Challenges: The Decade Ahead at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 26-28, 2010.
Reprinted (with prologue) as:

"Después del Colapso," El Trimestre Económico, vol. LXXVII (4), núm. 304, Octubre-Diciembre, 2010.

Growth in a Time of Debt, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) American Economic Review, Vol. 100 No. 2, May 2010, 573-578. NBER Working Paper 15639, January 2010 and CEPR Discussion Paper 7661, January 2010. 
Selected by:
Essential Science IndicatorsSM  from Thomson Reuters as a Fast-Moving Front paper- (most-cited paper) in the research area of Economics & Business, 2010.

When the North Last Headed South: Revisiting the 1930s
,
(with Vincent R. Reinhart), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Fall 2009, 251-272.
CEPR Discussion Paper 7835, May 2010.

The Aftermath of Financial Crises (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), American Economic Review, Vol. 99 No. 2, May 2009, 466-472.
All Figures and Data
Spanish version:
Secuelas de crisis bancarias, Bourning Markets, Spain, January 30, 2009.
Chinese version: (coming soon) in New Finance, Bank of Communications, Shanghai, China.
Selected by:
ISI Essential Science Indicators (Web of Science) as the Fast Breaking Paper in Economics and Business-Comment by Carmen M. Reinhart.

 Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present, (with Vincent R. Reinhart) in Jeffrey Frankel and Francesco Giavazzi (eds.) NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2008, (Chicago: Chicago University Press for NBER, 2009).
Reprinted as: "Bonanzas de Capital:  Una Mirada que Abarca el Pasado y el Presente,"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica, No. 20, (Bogotá: Banco de la Republica), December 2009.

Is the 2007 U.S. Subprime Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) in American Economic Review, Vol. 98 No. 2, May 2008.
All Figures and Data
Spanish version:¿Es tan diferente la crisis financiera sub-prime de 2007 en EEUU? una comparación histórica internacional , MPRA Working Paper 13656, 2008.
Serbian version:
Da li je američka sub-prime finansijska kriza iz 2007. godine tako različita? Medunarodna istorijska komparacija, πανoeconomicscus, 2009. 3, 291-299.

The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Shocks, (with Graciela  L. Kaminsky) NBER Working Paper 9479, February 2003 forthcoming in Carmen M. Reinhart, Carlos A. Végh and Andres Velasco eds. Capital Flows, Crisis, and Stabilization:  Essays in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo. (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2008).
Reprinted in :
 H. Peter Gray and John R. Dilyard, eds. Globalization and International Economic Instability (Camberley: Edward Elgar,).

 Capital Controls: An Evaluation (with Nicolas Magud), in Sebastian Edwards (ed.), Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences (Chicago: Chicago University Press for the NBER, 2007).

When In Peril Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion, (with Fernando Broner and Gaston Gelos). Journal of International Economics, Vol. 6 No. 1, June 2006, 203-230.

Serial Default and Its Remedies, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). Miguel Centeno, Harold James, and J. Londregan, eds. The Political Economy of Recurrent Debt. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies Monograph Series, Number 3, 2005). 4-18 (lead article).

When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Policies, with (Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos A.Végh). in Mark Gertler and Kenneth S. Rogoff, eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004.  Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 11-53 (lead article).
Reprinted in:  
Revista de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia, Vol. 3, (Uruguay: Universidad de Montevideo, 2004), 9-54 (lead article).

Serial Default and the “Paradox” of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff).  American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 2, May 2004, 53-59.
Reprinted in: Hans Visser,ed. The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishers,2011).

The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). NBER Working Paper 8963, May 2002. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CXIX No. 1, February 2004, 1-48 (lead article).

The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion (with Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos A. Végh), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17 No. 4, Fall 2003, 51-74.
Reprinted in: 
ICFAI Journal of International Finance (Andhra Pradesh, India: ICFAI University Press, 2004).
Reprinted in:
Mardi Dungey and Demosthenes Tambakis, Identifying International Financial Contagion: Progress and Challenges (New York: Oxford University Press, July 2005).
Reprinted in:
Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale, Financial Crises, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 2007 forthcoming).

Debt Intolerance, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol.1 Spring 2003, 1-74 (lead article).
Reprinted as:  La Intolerancia a la Deuda, El Trimestre Económico, Mexico, Vol. LXXVI (4), Issue 304, (octubre-diciembre, 2009), 811-884 (lead article).

Twin Fallacies About Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Markets,  (with Vincent R. Reinhart), Moneda y Crédito Vol. 216, 2003, 11-29 (lead article).
Reprinted in (abridged): Ekonomika, Bulletin of the Malaysian Economic Association, August 2003. 

Financial Liberalisation: The African Experience, (with Ioannis Tokatlidis), Journal of African Economies, Vol. 12 Supplement 2, 2003, 53-88. 

Fear of Floating, (with Guillermo A. Calvo). Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CXVII No. 2, May 2002, 379-408, (lead article).
Selected by:
ISI Essential Science Indicators (Web of Science) as the Fast Breaking Paper in Economics and Business-Comment by Carmen M. Reinhart, April 2004.

Financial Markets in Times of Stress, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 69 No. 2, December 2002, 451-470.
Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings
, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 16 No. 2, 2002, 151-170 (lead article).

FDI to Africa: The Role of Price Stability and Currency Instability (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), in Boris Pleskovic and Nicholas Stern, eds. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2002: The New Reform Agenda, (Washington, DC:  World Bank/Oxford University Press), 247-82.

Temporary Controls on Capital Inflows, (with R.Todd Smith), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 57. No. 2, August 2002, 327-351.

Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System:  Summary and Policy Implications, (with Richard Levich and Giovanni Majnoni) in Richard Levich, Giovanni Majnoni, and Carmen M. Reinhart eds. Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System  (New York: Kluwer Academic Press, 2002), 1-16.

Sovereign Credit Ratings Before and After Financial Crises, in Richard Levich, Giovanni Majnoni, and Carmen M. Reinhart, eds. Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System, (New York: Kluwer Academic Press, 2002), 251-268.
Reprinted as:
Tsao Rong Xiang, ed. Country Risk and Economic Stabilization in Developing Countries, (China: Social Sciences Documentation Publishing House, 2003).

Stopping Hot Money, (with Hali Edison) Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 66 No. 2, December 2001, 533-553.
Reprinted in: Hans Singer, Neelambar Hatti  and Rameshwar Tandon eds. New World Order Series Vol. 23 Newly Industrializing Countries After the Asian Crisis, (New Delhi: BR Publishing Co., December 2004).

Capital Controls During Financial Crises: The Case of Malaysia and Thailand, (with Hali Edison), in Reuven Glick ed. Financial Crises in Emerging Markets (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 427-456.

What Hurts Most: G-3 Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility? (with Vincent R. Reinhart) in Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey Frankel, eds. Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER, 2001), 73-99.

Fixing for Your Life, (with Guillermo A. Calvo) in Susan Collins and Dani Rodrik, eds. Brookings Trade Forum 2000 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2000), 1-39, (lead article).

Reflections on Dollarization, (with Guillermo A. Calvo), in Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro (eds.), Currency Unions (Stanford: Hoover Institute Press, 2001), 39-47.

The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s (with Peter Montiel) in Stephany Griffith-Jones, Manuel Montes, and Anwar Nasution eds. Short-term Capital Flows and Economic Crises, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001), 3-28 (lead article).

Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), in Takatoshi Ito and Anne Krueger, eds. Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER, 2001), 73-99.

On Crises, Contagion, and Confusion, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 51 No. 1, June 2000, 145-168.
Reprinted in:  Dilip K. Das, ed. An International Finance Reader, (London and New York: Routledge Press, 2003).
Reprinted in: Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey, eds. Emerging Markets (Camberley: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd., 2004).
Reprinted in: 
Hans Singer, Neelambar Hatti, and Rameshwar Tandon eds. New World Order Series Vol. 23
Newly Industrializing Countries After the Asian Crisis, (New Delhi: BR Publishing Co., December 2004).

The Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates, American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 2, May 2000, 65-70.
Reprinted in:
Jorge F. Pérez-López, and José F. Alonso, eds. Cuba in Transition, Vol. 10, Papers and Proceedings of Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (Washington DC: ASCE, 2000), 48-53.
Reprinted in:
Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada, November 2000), 351-360.

When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options, (with Guillermo A. Calvo) in Peter Kenen and Alexandre Swoboda, eds. Reforming the International Monetary and Financial System, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, 2000), 175-201.

Do Capital Controls Influence the Volume and Composition of Capital Flows? Evidence from the 1990s, (with Peter Montiel), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 18 No. 4, August 1999, 619-635.

The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion Paper No. 544 (March 1996), American Economic Review, Vol. 89 No. 3, June 1999, 473-500.
Reprinted as:
Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos, Manuel Guitián and Félix Varela, eds. Sistemas Financieros ante la Globalización (Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide, 2000), 63-110.
Reprinted in:
Global Financial Crisis and Reforms: Cases and Caveats, B.N. Gosh ed., (London: Routledge Press, 2001), 9-47.
Reprinted in:
The Political Economy of Financial Crises
, Roy E. Allen, ed., (Camberley: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd., November 2004).
Reprinted in:
New International Financial Architecture
, Nouriel Roubini and Marc Uzan, eds. (Camberley: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd., 2006).
Reprinted in:
Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale, Financial Crises, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 2007).

Saving in Latin America and Lessons from Europe: An Overview, (with William Plies), in Carmen M. Reinhart ed. Accounting for Saving: Financial Liberalization, Capital Flows, and Growth in Latin America and Europe (Washington DC: John Hopkins University Press for the Inter-American Development Bank, 1999), 3-47.

On the Use of Reserve Requirements in Dealing with the Capital-Flow Problem, (with Vincent R. Reinhart), International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 4  No.1, January 1999, 27-54.

Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods, (with Masao Ogaki), Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 106 No. 5, October 1998, 1078-1098.

Intertemporal Substitution and Durable Goods: Long-Run Data, (with Masao Ogaki), Economics Letters, Vol. 61 No. 1, October 1998, 85-90.

Capital Flows and Saving in Latin America and Asia: A Reinterpretation, (with ErnestoTalvi),  Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 57 No. 1, October 1998, 45-66.

Too Much of a Good Thing: the Macroeconomic Effects of Taxing Capital Inflow, (with R.Todd Smith), in Reuven Glick, ed. Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: Perspectives from the Pacific Basin, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), 436-464.

Some Lessons for Policy Makers Who Deal with the Mixed Blessing of Capital Inflows, (with Vincent R. Reinhart) in Miles Kahler, ed. Capital Flows and Financial Crises, Council on Foreign Relations Book (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998), 93-127.

Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America Different: Then and Now, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky),  American Economic Review, Vol. 88, May 1998, 444-449.
Reprinted in: Merrill Lynch Emerging Markets Debt Monthly, September 1998.
Reprinted as: Crisis financiera en Asia y Latinoamérica: ahora y entonces, Manuel Guitián and Félix Varela, eds. Sistemas Financieros ante la Globalización (Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide, 2000), 113-121.
Reprinted in: Nagendra V. Chowdhary ed. Financial Sector Reforms: An Indian Perspective  (India:  ICFAI University Press, 2006).

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky and J. Saul Lizondo), IMF Working Paper WP/97/79, July 1997. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45 No. 1, March 1998, 1-48, (lead article).

Le Prix del’Argent: How (Not) to Deal with Capital Inflows, (with Patrick Asea),  Journal of African Economies, Vol. 5 No. 3, Supplement Part I, October 1996, 231-271.

Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison, (with Masao Ogaki and Jonathan Ostry), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43 No. 1, March 1996, 38-71.

Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects? (with Sara Calvo), in Guillermo A. Calvo, Morris Goldstein, Eduard Hochreiter, eds. Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis (Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 1996), 151-171.
First very different working paper version.
Reprinted in:
New World Order Series Vol. 18 Adjustment in Latin America. Hans Singer, N.Hatti, Rameshwar Tandon eds., (New Dehli: Indus Publishing Co., 1998).

Capital Flows to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and Effects (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.10 No. 2, Spring 1996, 123-139.
Reprinted in:
Chris Milner ed., Developing and Newly Industrialising Countries, (United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 1998), 135-151.
Reprinted in: Hans Visser,ed. The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishers, 2011).

Capital Inflows to Latin America with Reference to the Asian Experience, (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), in Sebastian Edwards, ed. Capital Controls, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in the World Economy, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), 339-382.

Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 42 No. 2, June 1995, 290-312.

The Demand for Money in Developing Countries: Assessing the Role of Financial Innovation, (with Patricio Arrau, José De Gregorio, and Peter Wickham), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 46, 1995, 317-340.

Targeting the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence, (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Carlos A. Végh), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 47, June 1995, 97-133. 
Reprinted  as: La Tasa de Cambio Real Como Meta de Política: Teoría y Evidencia, Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica, (Bogotá: Banco de la Republica, 1995), 1-24.

Nominal Interest Rates, Consumption Booms, and Lack of Credibility: A Quantitative Examination, (with Carlos A.Végh), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 46 No. 2, April 1995, 357-378.

The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts and Issues, (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. XII No. 3, July 1994, 54-66.
Reprinted in:  
International Center for Economic Growth Occasional Papers Number 56, (Panama City, Panama, ICS Press, August 1994).
Reprinted as:
“El Problema de la Afluencia de Capital,” Roberto Steiner, ed. Afluencia de Capitales y Estabilización en América Latina, (Bogotá: Tercer Mundo Editores, 1995), 1-24.

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices, (with Eduardo Borensztein), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41 No. 2, June 1994, 236-261.

Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline? (with Peter Wickham), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41 No. 2, June 1994, 175-213 (lead article).

Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s,  (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), in Edmar Bacha, ed. Economics in a Changing World, Vol. 4 Development, Trade and the Environment, (London: Macmillan Press, 1994), 123-148.

Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40 No. 1, March 1993, 108-151.
Reprinted as: "Afluencia de Capital y Apreciación del Tipo de Cambio Real en América Latina: El Papel de Factores Externos" in Mauricio Cárdenas and Luis Jorge Garay, eds. Macroeconomia de los Flujos de Capital en Colombia y América Latina, (Bogotá, Colombia: Tercer Mundo Editores, 1993), 15-84

Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries, (with Jonathan Ostry), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39 No. 3, September 1992, 495-517.

Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia, (with Vincent R. Reinhart), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38 No. 4, December 1991, 705-735.
Reprinted as:
Fluctuaciones del Producto y Choques Monetarios: Evidencia Colombiana, Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica, No. 20, (Bogotá: Banco de la Republica, December 1991), 53-86.

Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38 No. 3, September 1991, 506-524.

A Model of Adjustment and Growth: An Empirical Analysis, in Mohsin S. Khan, Peter Montiel, and Nadeem Ul Haque, eds. Macroeconomic Models for Adjustment in Developing Countries, (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 1991), 10-37 (lead article). 

A Model of Adjustment and GrowthIMF Staff Papers, Vol. 37 No. 1, March 1990, 168-182.

Private Investment and Economic Growth, (with Mohsin S. Khan), World Development, Vol. 18 No. 1, January 1990, 19-27.
Reprinted in: Hans Singer, Neelambar Hatti, Rameshwar Tandon eds. New World Order Series Vol. 11 Foreign Direct Investments, (New Delhi: Indus Publishing Co., 1991), 243-258.