Publications in Journals

From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), NBER Working Paper 15795, March 2010. Forthcoming in American Economic Review.

"Pride Goes Before a Fall: Federal Reserve Policy and Asset Markets," (with Vincent Reinhart).  Forthcoming in the Cato Journal, 2011.

The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). NBER Working Paper 13946, April 2008. Forthcoming in the Economic Journal.

On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion? (with Rong Qian and Kenneth S. Rogoff), NBER Working Paper 16168, forthcoming in Daron Acemoglu and Michael Woodford, eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010. Vol. 25, Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 2010 (lead article)

Growth in a Time of Debt, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) American Economic Review, Vol. 100 No. 2, May 2010, 573-578. NBER Working Paper 15639, January 2010 and CEPR Discussion Paper 7661, January 2010. 
Selected by: Essential Science Indicators^SM  from Thomson Reuters as a Fast-Moving Front paper- (most-cited paper) in the research area of Economics & Business, 2010.

When the North Last Headed South: Revisiting the 1930s, (with Vincent R. Reinhart), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2009, 251-272.
CEPR Discussion Paper 7835, May 2010.

Addicted to Dollars, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano), forthcoming in Economía, 2010.

The Aftermath of Financial Crises (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), American Economic Review, Vol. 99 No. 2, May 2009, 466-472.
Spanish version: Secuelas de crisis bancarias, Bourning Markets, Spain, January 30, 2009.
Chinese version: (coming soon) in New Finance, Bank of Communications, Shanghai, China.
Selected by: ISI Essential Science Indicators (Web of Science) as the Fast Breaking Paper in Economics and Business-Comment by Carmen M. Reinhart, April 2004.

Is the 2007 U.S. Subprime Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) in American Economic Review, Vol. 98 No. 2, May 2008.
Spanish version:¿Es tan diferente la crisis financiera sub-prime de 2007 en EEUU? una comparación histórica internacional , MPRA Working Paper 13656, 2008.
Serbian version: Da li je američka sub-prime finansijska kriza iz 2007. godine tako različita? Medunarodna istorijska komparacija, πανoeconomicscus, 2009. 3, 291-299.

When In Peril Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion, (with Fernando Broner and Gaston Gelos). Journal of International Economics, Vol. 6 No. 1, June 2006, 203-230.

When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Policies, with (Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos A.Végh). in Mark Gertler and Kenneth S. Rogoff, eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004.  Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 11-53 (lead article).
Reprinted in:  Revista de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia, Vol. 3, (Uruguay: Universidad de Montevideo, 2004), 9-54 (lead article).

Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff).  American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 2, May 2004, 53-59.
Reprinted in: Hans Visser,ed. The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishers, forthcoming 2011).

The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). NBER Working Paper 8963, May 2002. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CXIX No. 1, February 2004, 1-48 (lead article).

The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion (with Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos A. Végh), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17 No. 4, Fall 2003, 51-74.
Reprinted in:  ICFAI Journal of International Finance (Andhra Pradesh, India: ICFAI University Press, 2004).
Reprinted in: Mardi Dungey and Demosthenes Tambakis, Identifying International Financial Contagion: Progress and Challenges (New York: Oxford University Press, July 2005).
Reprinted in: Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale, Financial Crises, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 2007 forthcoming).

Debt Intolerance, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol.1 Spring 2003, 1-74 (lead article).
Reprinted as:  La Intolerancia a la Deuda, El Trimestre Económico, Mexico, Vol. LXXVI (4), Issue 304, (octubre-diciembre, 2009), 811-884 (lead article).

Twin Fallacies About Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Markets,  (with Vincent R. Reinhart), Moneda y Crédito Vol. 216, 2003, 11-29 (lead article).
Reprinted in (abridged): Ekonomika, Bulletin of the Malaysian Economic Association, August 2003. 

Financial Liberalisation: The African Experience, (with Ioannis Tokatlidis), Journal of African Economies, Vol. 12 Supplement 2, 2003, 53-88. 

Fear of Floating, (with Guillermo A. Calvo). Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CXVII No. 2, May 2002, 379-408, (lead article).
Selected by: ISI Essential Science Indicators (Web of Science) as the Fast Breaking Paper in Economics and Business-Comment by Carmen M. Reinhart, April 2004.

Financial Markets in Times of Stress, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 69 No. 2, December 2002, 451-470.

Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 16 No. 2, 2002, 151-170 (lead article).

Temporary Controls on Capital Inflows, (with R.Todd Smith), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 57. No. 2, August 2002, 327-351.

Stopping Hot Money, (with Hali Edison) Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 66 No. 2, December 2001, 533-553.
Reprinted in: Hans Singer, Neelambar Hatti  and Rameshwar Tandon eds. New World Order Series Vol. 23 Newly Industrializing Countries After the Asian Crisis, (New Delhi: BR Publishing Co., December 2004).

Fixing for Your Life, (with Guillermo A. Calvo) in Susan Collins and Dani Rodrik, eds. Brookings Trade Forum 2000 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2000), 1-39, (lead article).

On Crises, Contagion, and Confusion, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 51 No. 1, June 2000, 145-168.
Reprinted in:  Dilip K. Das, ed. An International Finance Reader, (London and New York: Routledge Press, 2003).
Reprinted in: Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey, eds. Emerging Markets (Camberley: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd., 2004).
Reprinted in:  Hans Singer, Neelambar Hatti, and Rameshwar Tandon eds. New World Order Series Vol. 23 Newly Industrializing Countries After the Asian Crisis, (New Delhi: BR Publishing Co., December 2004).

The Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates, American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 2, May 2000, 65-70.
Reprinted in: Jorge F. Pérez-López, and José F. Alonso, eds. Cuba in Transition, Vol. 10, Papers and Proceedings of Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (Washington DC: ASCE, 2000), 48-53.
Reprinted in: Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada, November 2000), 351-360.

Do Capital Controls Influence the Volume and Composition of Capital Flows? Evidence from the 1990s, (with Peter Montiel), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 18 No. 4, August 1999, 619-635.

The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion Paper No. 544 (March 1996), American Economic Review, Vol. 89 No. 3, June 1999, 473-500.
Reprinted as: Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos, Manuel Guitián and Félix Varela, eds. Sistemas Financieros ante la Globalización (Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide, 2000), 63-110.
Reprinted in: Global Financial Crisis and Reforms: Cases and Caveats, B.N. Gosh ed., (London: Routledge Press, 2001), 9-47.
Reprinted in: The Political Economy of Financial Crises, Roy E. Allen, ed., (Camberley: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd., November 2004).
Reprinted in: New International Financial Architecture, Nouriel Roubini and Marc Uzan, eds. (Camberley: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd., 2006).
Reprinted in: Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale, Financial Crises, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 2007).

On the Use of Reserve Requirements in Dealing with the Capital-Flow Problem, (with Vincent R. Reinhart), International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 4  No.1, January 1999, 27-54.

Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods, (with Masao Ogaki), Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 106 No. 5, October 1998, 1078-1098.

Intertemporal Substitution and Durable Goods: Long-Run Data, (with Masao Ogaki), Economics Letters, Vol. 61 No. 1, October 1998, 85-90.

Capital Flows and Saving in Latin America and Asia: A Reinterpretation, (with ErnestoTalvi),  Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 57 No. 1, October 1998, 45-66.

Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America Different: Then and Now, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky),  American Economic Review, Vol. 88, May 1998, 444-449.
Reprinted in: Merrill Lynch Emerging Markets Debt Monthly, September 1998.
Reprinted as: Crisis financiera en Asia y Latinoamérica: ahora y entonces, Manuel Guitián and Félix Varela, eds. Sistemas Financieros ante la Globalización (Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide, 2000), 113-121.
Reprinted in: Nagendra V. Chowdhary ed. Financial Sector Reforms: An Indian Perspective  (India:  ICFAI University Press, 2006).

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky and J. Saul Lizondo), IMF Working Paper WP/97/79, July 1997. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45 No. 1, March 1998, 1-48, (lead article).

Le Prix del'Argent: How (Not) to Deal with Capital Inflows, (with Patrick Asea),  Journal of African Economies, Vol. 5 No. 3, Supplement Part I, October 1996, 231-271.

Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison, (with Masao Ogaki and Jonathan Ostry), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43 No. 1, March 1996, 38-71.

Capital Flows to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and Effects (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.10 No. 2, Spring 1996, 123-139.
Reprinted in: Chris Milner ed., Developing and Newly Industrialising Countries, (United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 1998), 135-151.
Reprinted in: Hans Visser,ed. The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishers, forthcoming 2011).

Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 42 No. 2, June 1995, 290-312.

The Demand for Money in Developing Countries: Assessing the Role of Financial Innovation, (with Patricio Arrau, José De Gregorio, and Peter Wickham), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 46, 1995, 317-340.

Targeting the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence, (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Carlos A. Végh), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 47, June 1995, 97-133. 
Reprinted  as: La Tasa de Cambio Real Como Meta de Política: Teoría y Evidencia, Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica, (Bogotá: Banco de la Republica, 1995), 1-24.

Nominal Interest Rates, Consumption Booms, and Lack of Credibility: A Quantitative Examination, (with Carlos A.Végh), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 46 No. 2, April 1995, 357-378.

The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts and Issues, (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. XII No. 3, July 1994, 54-66.
Reprinted in:  International Center for Economic Growth Occasional Papers Number 56, (Panama City, Panama, ICS Press, August 1994).
Reprinted as: "El Problema de la Afluencia de Capital," Roberto Steiner, ed. Afluencia de Capitales y Estabilización en América Latina, (Bogotá: Tercer Mundo Editores, 1995), 1-24.

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices, (with Eduardo Borensztein), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41 No. 2, June 1994, 236-261.

Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline? (with Peter Wickham), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41 No. 2, June 1994, 175-213 (lead article).

Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40 No. 1, March 1993, 108-151.
Reprinted as: "Afluencia de Capital y Apreciación del Tipo de Cambio Real en América Latina: El Papel de Factores Externos" in Mauricio Cárdenas and Luis Jorge Garay, eds. Macroeconomia de los Flujos de Capital en Colombia y América Latina, (Bogotá, Colombia: Tercer Mundo Editores, 1993), 15-84

Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries, (with Jonathan Ostry), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39 No. 3, September 1992, 495-517.

Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia, (with Vincent R. Reinhart), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38 No. 4, December 1991, 705-735.
Reprinted as: Fluctuaciones del Producto y Choques Monetarios: Evidencia Colombiana, Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica, No. 20, (Bogotá: Banco de la Republica, December 1991), 53-86.

Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38 No. 3, September 1991, 506-524.

A Model of Adjustment and Growth, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 37 No. 1, March 1990, 168-182.

Private Investment and Economic Growth, (with Mohsin S. Khan), World Development, Vol. 18 No. 1, January 1990, 19-27.
Reprinted in: Hans Singer, Neelambar Hatti, Rameshwar Tandon eds. New World Order Series Vol. 11 Foreign Direct Investments, (New Delhi: Indus Publishing Co., 1991), 243-258.